本课目标

学完本课，你能够：

• 区分“可能”“较可能”“不太可能”和“影响很大”；
• 用证据而不是感觉说明概率判断；
• 把可能性和后果分开，不用低概率掩盖高影响风险；
• 用现实条件句说明触发条件和应对动作；
• 完成一份三情景风险说明。

本课边界

Corner Table Café已按F022框架完成四个日期的本人确认和恢复时间检查，并只开放框架内的预约：六周内最多四次、每次最多12人和90分钟、三项预订菜单、总计不超过$800及20个额外工时。当前仍是受限试行，不是固定晚间营业。任何日期若失去两名员工的直接确认，或可能突破资源与恢复保护，必须在服务前暂停。

场景词汇

• baseline scenario 基准情景
• disruption scenario 受干扰情景
• high-impact risk 高影响风险
• booking snapshot 当前预订快照
• remaining margin 剩余余量
• trigger condition 触发条件
• contingency 预备方案／预备金
• pause rule 暂停规则

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Probability is a judgment about evidence, not a promise about the future

Four trial dates have passed the staffing gate. Before the first date, Rosa and Malik turn the current booking sheet, rota and committed costs into a three-scenario briefing for Owen.

Part A — Ranking scenarios without pretending to know the future

Rosa: What we know is that thirty-six places are booked across four dates: eight, ten, nine and nine. Each date has two employees who confirmed it directly.

Malik: We also know that five hundred and twenty dollars is committed and twelve extra staff-hours are scheduled. That leaves a maximum margin of two hundred and eighty dollars and eight hours.

Rosa: The most likely scenario is that all four evenings run within the framework, because every current booking fits the menu, capacity and staffing rules.

Malik: I agree that it is the baseline, but “most likely” does not mean guaranteed. A late cancellation or illness could still change one date.

Rosa: There’s a reasonable chance that one evening needs a small adjustment. Two groups asked whether they could reduce their final number up to forty-eight hours before service.

Malik: If a group reduces its number before the food-order cutoff, Rosa will update the order and the event can continue. If it happens later, some food cost may remain.

Rosa: The evidence suggests that a minor booking change is more plausible than a full cancellation, but four dates are still a very small sample.

Malik: We can rule out accepting more than twelve people under this framework. We can’t rule out a group asking, so the reply template needs to state the limit.

Rosa: A staffing failure is possible, but not especially likely, because every date currently has two confirmations and one optional backup contact.

Malik: Be careful with “backup.” That person agreed to receive a call, not to work automatically. If one confirmed employee withdraws, the date pauses unless another person accepts it directly.

Part B — Connecting probability, impact and action

Rosa: The least likely scenario is that several problems occur together and threaten both the cost and hour ceilings.

Malik: It may be the least likely, but it has the highest impact. If extra cleanup, food waste and a late staffing change combine, the remaining margin could disappear quickly.

Rosa: The risk increases if we add off-menu requests or treat a late cancellation as a reason to extend the event. Neither action is allowed.

Malik: And if projected spending reaches eight hundred dollars or projected hours reach twenty, the next event will be paused before the limit is crossed.

Rosa: How likely is that under the current bookings? I’d call it unlikely, based on committed costs and scheduled hours, but not impossible.

Malik: That is defensible. What we don’t know yet is the actual cleanup time, final attendance or whether the three-item menu prevents last-minute preparation.

Rosa: Then the safest conclusion is that the framework has enough recorded margin to begin, provided that every gate remains active.

Malik: Yes. The briefing should not say the trial is low-risk overall. It should say which scenario is more likely, which one matters most and what triggers a pause.

Rosa: I’ll list a baseline, an adjustment scenario and a combined-pressure scenario, with evidence and actions beside each one.

Malik: Good. After the second evening, we’ll replace these estimates with recorded cost, time, attendance and recovery evidence before continuing.

Three-scenario briefing

Scenario	Current likelihood	Evidence	Impact／action
all four dates operate within the framework	most likely, not guaranteed	36 bookings; all within menu and capacity; two direct confirmations per date	proceed while every gate remains true
one date needs a booking or staffing adjustment	reasonable chance	two groups asked about reducing numbers; illness remains possible	update before cutoff; obtain fresh direct staffing consent or pause
combined pressure threatens cost／hour ceilings	unlikely but high impact	$280 and 8 hours remain before service; actual cleanup and waste unknown	no off-menu expansion; pause before either ceiling is crossed

Check the story

1. How many places are currently booked across the four dates?
2. What cost and hour margins remain?
3. Why is the baseline not a guarantee?
4. What did the optional backup contact actually agree to?
5. Which scenario is least likely but highest in impact?
6. What evidence will replace the estimates after the second evening?

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“最可能”不是“很安全”

可能性回答“多容易发生”；影响回答“发生后有多严重”。一个不太可能但会突破人员保护的情景，仍需要明确暂停规则。

概率词后面要能接because

It is unlikely because committed costs and scheduled hours remain below the ceilings.

若说不出依据，就应改成we don't have enough evidence to rank it，而不是凭语气选择probably。

条件句写触发，不写愿望

If one confirmed employee withdraws, the date will pause unless another person accepts it directly.

触发条件和结果都可核对；We'll try to work something out不能保护边界。

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本课负荷说明

本课主动掌握6个概率与风险词块，建立GR074。CH543—CH548完成跨单元近R；L96将完成单元R和结业整合。

1. How likely is that?

要求对方说明可能性；中性、分析性。最好继续问依据。

How likely is a full cancellation, and what evidence are we using?

2. The most likely scenario is …

给多个未来分支排序，不等于保证。

The most likely scenario is that all four dates stay within the framework.

3. There's a reasonable chance that …

表示有真实可能、值得纳入计划，但不声称超过一半。

There’s a reasonable chance that one group changes its final number.

4. It's possible, but not especially likely, that …

保留一个合理但目前证据较弱的情景。

It’s possible, but not especially likely, that a confirmed employee withdraws.

5. The risk increases if …

指出会提高风险的条件，不假装给出精确概率。

The risk increases if off-menu requests are accepted.

6. If … happens, … will …

把现实触发条件连接到预先约定的动作。

If projected hours reach twenty, the next event will pause.

Don’t Say It That Way

容易说出的句子	问题	更准确的表达
It probably won't happen, so ignore it.	把低概率当作零影响	It is unlikely, but the impact is high, so the pause rule stays active.
There is a 70% chance of a cancellation.	小样本没有这种精度	A cancellation is possible, but we do not have enough data for a percentage.
The backup person will cover.	把愿意接电话写成接受班次	The backup contact may be asked, but the date proceeds only after direct acceptance.
Everything should be fine.	没有情景、依据或触发条件	The baseline fits the current records, provided that staffing and resource gates remain true.

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1. may / might / could保留可能

三者都可表示可能性；could只说明某事可能发生，不自动表示它较可能。

Actual cleanup could take longer.
A group might reduce its number.

2. likely / unlikely需要主语或形式主语

A minor adjustment is likely.
It is unlikely that all three pressures will occur together.

不要说It maybe happens；可说It may happen或Maybe it will happen。

3. 第一条件句处理现实触发

If a group changes its number before the cutoff, Rosa will update the order.

if从句用一般现在时，不用will。

4. provided that / unless保留门槛

The trial can begin provided that every staffing gate remains active.
The date pauses unless another employee accepts it directly.

快速练习

1. It (may / maybe) take longer to clean up.
2. There is a reasonable chance ______ one group changes its number. (that / of)
3. If a confirmed employee withdraws, the date ______. (will pause / pauses will)
4. The event proceeds ______ two people confirm directly. (provided that / despite)
5. 把The backup person will work改成保留直接同意门槛的句子。
6. 为“低概率、高影响”的情景写一句概率判断和一句动作。

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用重音突出等级和范围：

The MOST LIKELY scenario is / that all four dates stay within the FRAMEWORK.

保留句把possible与not especially likely分开：

It’s POSSIBLE / but not especially LIKELY / that a date loses coverage.

条件动作使用清楚落调：

If that HAPPENS / the date will PAUSE. ↘

影子跟读

How likely is that?
There’s a reasonable chance that one group changes its number.
The risk increases if we accept off-menu requests.
If projected hours reach twenty, the next event will pause.

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A. 理解检查

判断正误：

1. Thirty-six places are booked across four dates.
2. The current plan has already spent the full $800.
3. An optional backup contact has accepted every possible shift.
4. A small booking adjustment is judged more plausible than a combined resource crisis.
5. An unlikely scenario never needs an action plan.
6. Estimates will be reviewed after the second evening.

B. Likelihood / impact / evidence / action

把六条信息放入四栏。任何likely或unlikely后面必须写依据；任何high-impact情景必须写触发动作。

C. CH543—CH548近R

用第92课六个词块审查本课三情景：列出已知、未知、有限推断、可排除、不可排除和最稳妥结论。不得把36个预订写成实际出席。

D. 概率阶梯

把以下四种判断按把握度排序，并为每条添加范围：could / reasonable chance / most likely / can rule out。讨论为什么high impact不在概率阶梯上。

E. 条件链

为三个触发写完整流程：

• final number changes before cutoff;
• one confirmed employee withdraws;
• projected cost reaches the ceiling.

每条必须包含owner、record和pause／continue结果。

F. GR063／GR067远迁移

先用If we were to …, we could …提出一个尚未批准的应急选择，再用现实if和provided that写出真正可执行门槛。说明二者为何不能互换。

G. 三情景风险说明

根据一张新预约表，写180—220词brief：baseline、plausible disruption和low-likelihood high-impact risk。每个情景包含likelihood、basis、impact和action。

H. 角色扮演：风险复核

一人倾向把全部风险说得很小，另一人倾向把任何可能写成危机。用5分钟形成共同排序，不使用无依据百分比。

I. 中译英情境表达

1. 那种情况有多大可能？我们的依据是什么？
2. 最可能的情况是四个日期都保持在框架内。
3. 有相当的可能，其中一组会调整最终人数。
4. 一名已确认员工退出是可能的，但不是特别可能。
5. 如果接受菜单外要求，风险会增加。
6. 如果预计工时达到20小时，下一个活动将暂停。

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做一张不使用百分比的情景卡

为自己的非敏感计划写三个未来分支。只使用most likely / reasonable chance / possible but not especially likely / cannot rank yet，并在旁边写证据日期。

分开概率和影响

给每个情景画两个独立标记：发生可能性、发生后影响。不要让一个词代替两个判断。

三天后的复测

换一张数据表，在4分钟内口头说明三个情景。录音回听：你是否把might读成了含糊逃避，或把most likely读成了保证？

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• 我能区分可能性和影响。
• 我不会用无依据的百分比制造精确感。
• 我能用证据支持likely / unlikely。
• 我能把现实触发条件连接到明确动作。
• 我完成了三情景brief、角色复核和三天后复测。